Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Antonio SenzatelaPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rodgers grounded into fielder's choice to second, Doyle scored on throwing error by shortstop Perdomo, McMahon out at second.2–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Goodman homered to left (386 feet).2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Tovar homered to right center (416 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Marte homered to center (460 feet), Carroll scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 62%
- ML ARI -180 / COL +150
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- ARI: Elo 60.2%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- ARI -161
- COL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 6.3 – 5.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1421 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +25 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Antonio Senzatela: team allows 1.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +72 Elo | ARI 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 62.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 27th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 5th of 3041–33 | Road vs home | 34–3623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–70 | 72–74 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 32–41 | 2–8 |
| Underdog | 47–29 | 70–65 |
| Overs–unders | 89–59–1 | 76–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 18–5 COL in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 23.