Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Yasmani GrandalBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting4-4, 2 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8N. Gonzales singled to center, Cruz scored, Joe to third.3–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 7Grandal homered to right (393 feet).2–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 6Donovan doubled to center, Goldschmidt scored.1–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Donovan singled to center, Goldschmidt scored, Arenado to second.1–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4De La Cruz hit sacrifice fly to center, N. Gonzales scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 57%
- ML PIT +120 / STL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- STL: Elo 53.9%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- STL -130
- PIT +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.0 – 4.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +3 | PIT: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +27 Elo | STL 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 21st of 3033–41 | Road vs home | 41–3516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–75 | 76–75 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–42 | 23–45 |
| Underdog | 51–33 | 53–30 |
| Overs–unders | 75–74 | 71–78–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 13–12 STL in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 25.