Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Brendan RodgersBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Antonio SenzatelaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting4-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Betts homered to left (382 feet).5–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–6
- 9Ohtani homered to center (432 feet).5–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 7Freeman singled to right, Ohtani scored.5–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 7E. Hernández homered to left center (380 feet), Rojas scored.5–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 6Goodman doubled to left, Cave scored.5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 4T. Hernández homered to center (418 feet).4–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 34–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 24–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 14–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Jones singled to left, Rodgers scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 34–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1Jones grounded out to first, Toglia scored, Hilliard to second, Rodgers to third.3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 76.7% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 76%
- ML COL +300 / LAD -385
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 67.6%, market 76.0%
- Fair odds
- LAD -318
- COL +318 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 5.5 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1426 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +26 | +7 | COL: Antonio Senzatela: team allows 1.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +128 Elo | LAD 67.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 74.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 73.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 76.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 30th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 29th of 3024–56 | Road vs home | 49–272nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–76 | 78–76 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–8 | 69–63 |
| Underdog | 73–67 | 9–13 |
| Overs–unders | 78–73 | 86–67–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 6–16 LAD in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 22.