Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Charlie BlackmonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Blackmon homered to right (348 feet), Cave scored.6–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–3
- 5McMahon homered to left center (384 feet).4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Feduccia singled to right, Muncy scored, Lux to third.3–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 3Betts homered to left center (391 feet), Ohtani scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Tovar doubled to left, Stallings scored and Jones scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Toglia grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Blackmon scored, Tovar third.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 71%
- ML COL +230 / LAD -285
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 72.6%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- LAD -244
- COL +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.8 – 5.7 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1423 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | −2 | COL: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.93 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +169 Elo | LAD 72.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 69.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 69.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 30th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 29th of 3023–56 | Road vs home | 49–262nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–76 | 78–75 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–8 | 69–62 |
| Underdog | 72–67 | 9–13 |
| Overs–unders | 78–72 | 86–66–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 5–16 LAD in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 21.