Cleveland Guardians at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Giménez doubled to right, Thomas scored.5–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 8Ramírez homered to left (391 feet), Martínez scored and Fry scored.4–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 7Herrera homered to left center (418 feet), Goldschmidt scored and Arenado scored.1–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–6
- 7Winn scored on error, Goldschmidt safe at first on fielding error by first baseman J. Naylor, Goldschmidt to second.1–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 5Bo Naylor homered to right center (390 feet).1–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Walker homered to left (371 feet), Herrera scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 54%
- ML CLE -130 / STL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 54.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -119
- STL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.9 – 3.6 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −7 | CLE: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +28 Elo | CLE 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 8th of 3042–37 | Road vs home | 41–3717th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–74 | 76–77 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 41–49 | 23–47 |
| Underdog | 39–25 | 53–30 |
| Overs–unders | 73–79–2 | 71–80–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 3–1 STL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.