Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Willi CastroBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Lane ThomasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Castro homered to right (371 feet), Larnach scored.4–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 5Wallner singled to right, Buxton scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Thomas homered to center (424 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Wallner singled to right, Jeffers scored, Wallner to second, Buxton to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 57%
- ML MIN +120 / CLE -145
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 54.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -130
- MIN +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.0 – 4.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −6 | MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +31 Elo | CLE 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 14th of 3037–38 | Road vs home | 46–273rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–79 | 79–71 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 42–59 | 41–46 |
| Underdog | 28–20 | 38–25 |
| Overs–unders | 78–71 | 72–76–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 8–15 CLE in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 23.