Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Tyler AlexanderPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Guardians- Lane ThomasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ramírez homered to right (397 feet).1–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 8Thomas homered to left center (393 feet).1–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 31–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 8Caminero doubled to center, DeLuca scored.1–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 6Fry hit sacrifice fly to left, Ramírez scored.0–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 6J. Naylor singled to center, Martínez scored and Thomas scored, Ramírez to third.0–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Rocchio doubled to right, Giménez scored and Giménez scored, Rocchio to third, Noel thrown out at home.0–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 57%
- ML TB +120 / CLE -145
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 52.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -130
- TB +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.5 – 4.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −12 | TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +17 Elo | CLE 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 15th of 3036–37 | Road vs home | 43–273rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–76 | 77–70 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–44 | 39–45 |
| Underdog | 47–32 | 38–25 |
| Overs–unders | 69–78 | 72–73–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 7–4 CLE in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.