Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Lane ThomasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting2-4
- Jonathan CannonPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Giménez singled to left, Kwan scored.5–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 15–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 6Thomas homered to left center (374 feet), Ramírez scored and J. Naylor scored.4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 2Manzardo singled to right, Thomas scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 67%
- ML CLE -235 / CHW +195
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 64.4%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- CLE -207
- CHW +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 5.0 – 3.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1375 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +10 | CLE: Ben Lively: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +103 Elo | CLE 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 66.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 66.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.229th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 11th of 3039–37 | Road vs home | 18–5530th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–67 | 63–81 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 38–42 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 38–25 | 57–78 |
| Overs–unders | 71–70–2 | 66–77–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 11–13 CHW in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 24.