Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching2.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Tyler O'NeillBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Cooper CriswellPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 7Benintendi homered to right center (391 feet), Robinson scored and Lopez scored.5–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 15–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–7
- 5O'Neill homered to left center (409 feet).2–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–7
- 3Story singled to center, González scored.2–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 3González doubled to right, O'Neill scored.2–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 1Wong doubled to left, González scored.2–4
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 32–4
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 1O'Neill homered to left (396 feet), Devers scored.2–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 22–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 1Refsnyder grounded out to second, Duran scored, Devers to third.2–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Vaughn homered to center (402 feet), Benintendi scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 64%
- ML CHW +165 / BOS -200
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 68.8%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- BOS -177
- CHW +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.6 – 4.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1373 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +16 | CHW: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.84 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Cooper Criswell: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +137 Elo | BOS 68.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 61.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 30th of 3014–56 | Road vs home | 32–3827th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–79 | 63–78 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 25–50 |
| Underdog | 56–76 | 38–28 |
| Overs–unders | 65–75–1 | 73–66–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 6–5 BOS in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.