Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Corey JulksBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Cedric MullinsBatting3-6, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Mullins homered to right (362 feet), Cowser scored.3–13
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–13
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–13
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–13
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–13
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–13
- 8Julks singled to left, Amaya scored.3–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–11
- 6Henderson grounded out to second, Rivera scored.2–11
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–11
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–11
- 6Rivera tripled to right, Slater scored and Holliday scored.2–10
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–10
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 32–10
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–10
- 6Slater singled to left, Cowser scored and Mullins scored.2–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–8
- 6Mullins doubled to right, Santander scored, Cowser to third.2–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 5Rutschman singled to right, Slater scored, Holliday to second.2–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 5Henderson hit sacrifice fly to left, Mullins scored.2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Slater doubled to left, O'Hearn scored, Santander to third.2–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 3Santander singled to center, Rutschman scored, O'Hearn to third.2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 76.7% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 79%
- ML CHW +360 / BAL -475
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 76.5%, market 79.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -380
- CHW +380 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 2.3 – 5.2 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1372 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −23 | −1 | CHW: Chris Flexen: team allows 1.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +205 Elo | BAL 76.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 77.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 77.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 79.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 30th of 3013–53 | Road vs home | 39–308th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–76 | 74–63 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 49–53 |
| Underdog | 55–73 | 25–10 |
| Overs–unders | 62–74–1 | 77–58–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 2–8 BAL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.