Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Jacob AmayaBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rafaela homered to left center (381 feet), Valdez scored.1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Casas singled to left, Abreu scored, Yoshida to second.1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Amaya singled to left, Sosa scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 70%
- ML CHW +225 / BOS -275
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 69.5%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -238
- CHW +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.3 – 5.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1373 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −1 | CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +143 Elo | BOS 69.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 69.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 69.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 30th of 3014–55 | Road vs home | 31–3827th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–78 | 62–78 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 24–50 |
| Underdog | 56–75 | 38–28 |
| Overs–unders | 65–74–1 | 73–65–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 6–4 BOS in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.