Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Nicky LopezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jonathan CannonPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Albert SuarezPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fletcher grounded out to pitcher, Vaughn scored, Sosa to second, Sheets to third.8–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 38–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking8–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging8–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 28–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 9Sosa singled to right, Benintendi scored, Sheets to second, Vaughn to third.7–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 5Sosa hit sacrifice fly to right, Robert Jr. scored.6–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 26–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 5Robert Jr. doubled to left, Lopez scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 35–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 25–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 15–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 4Fletcher homered to right (394 feet), Sosa scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 4Vaughn homered to center (413 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 1Henderson homered to right center (402 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Lopez homered to right center (383 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 76.7% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 76%
- ML CHW +300 / BAL -380
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- BAL: Elo 76.3%, market 76.0%
- Fair odds
- BAL -317
- CHW +317 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.0 – 5.5 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1368 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +16 | CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BAL: Albert Suarez: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +204 Elo | BAL 76.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 71.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 72.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 76.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 29th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.2 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 30th of 3013–55 | Road vs home | 41–306th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–78 | 76–63 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 51–53 |
| Underdog | 55–75 | 25–10 |
| Overs–unders | 64–74–1 | 79–58–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 2–10 BAL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.