Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Jacob AmayaBatting2-3
- Jared ShusterPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching7.1 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 5Santander hit sacrifice fly to left, Henderson scored, Rutschman to third.0–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–9
- 4Mullins singled to center, Cowser scored, Jiménez to third.0–8
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–8
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 30–8
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–8
- 2O'Hearn scored on error, Santander scored on error and Cowser scored on error, Jiménez safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Vargas, Jiménez safe at second on error.0–7
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–7
- 2Cowser walked, Henderson scored, Santander to second, O'Hearn to third.0–4
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 40–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 1Cowser singled to right, Santander scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 1Santander doubled to center, O'Hearn scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1O'Hearn doubled to right, Henderson scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 73%
- ML CHW +260 / BAL -325
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 71.7%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- BAL -275
- CHW +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.1 – 5.4 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1370 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −17 | CHW: Nick Nastrini: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 0.87 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +162 Elo | BAL 71.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 73.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 73.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.2 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 30th of 3013–54 | Road vs home | 40–308th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–77 | 75–63 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 50–53 |
| Underdog | 55–74 | 25–10 |
| Overs–unders | 63–74–1 | 78–58–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 2–9 BAL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.