Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting3-4, 1 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Connor WongBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Richard FittsPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Robert Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Amaya scored, DeLoach to third.7–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging7–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 37–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 27–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–2
- 9DeLoach singled to right, Fletcher scored and Sheets scored on error, DeLoach safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Abreu, Amaya safe at third on error.6–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 9Amaya singled to right, Lopez scored, Sheets to second, Fletcher to third.4–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 9Fletcher doubled to left, Ramos scored, Lopez to third.3–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 23–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 6Abreu homered to right center (427 feet).2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 6Lee reached on infield single to pitcher, Robert Jr. scored.2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 6Benintendi grounded out to second, DeLoach scored, Robert Jr. to second.1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Wong homered to left center (401 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 70%
- ML CHW +220 / BOS -270
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 73.2%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -234
- CHW +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.3 – 6.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1372 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −31 | +4 | CHW: Chris Flexen: team allows 1.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Richard Fitts (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +175 Elo | BOS 73.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 72.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 72.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 30th of 3014–57 | Road vs home | 33–3825th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–80 | 64–78 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 26–50 |
| Underdog | 56–77 | 38–28 |
| Overs–unders | 66–75–1 | 74–66–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 6–6 BOS in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.