Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Bo NaylorBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
White Sox- Bryan RamosBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick NastriniPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ramos homered to left (395 feet), Sosa scored.5–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 35–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 7Vaughn singled to left, Benintendi scored.5–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 5Noel walked, Kwan scored, Ramírez to second, Fry to third.5–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 45–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 35–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 4Bo Naylor homered to center (428 feet).4–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 24–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Fry homered to center (414 feet).3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Thomas doubled to left, J. Naylor scored, Thomas to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1J. Naylor singled to left, Kwan scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 63%
- ML CLE -190 / CHW +160
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 65.2%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -170
- CHW +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 5.3 – 4.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1376 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −9 | CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.84 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHW: Jared Shuster: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +109 Elo | CLE 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 64.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.229th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 11th of 3038–37 | Road vs home | 18–5430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–67 | 63–80 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 37–42 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 38–25 | 57–77 |
| Overs–unders | 71–69–2 | 66–76–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 10–13 CHW in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 23.