Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cole SulserPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Andres GimenezBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Driscoll hit sacrifice fly to left, Siri scored.5–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 8Caballero singled to center, Walls scored, J. Lowe to second.4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 4DeLuca singled to center, Caballero scored on error, DeLuca safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Thomas.3–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 4Aranda hit sacrifice fly to center, J. Lowe scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 2Giménez singled to right, Rocchio scored on error, Giménez safe at second on throwing error by right fielder J. Lowe, Kwan safe at third on error.1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Thomas doubled to left, Ramírez scored, J. Naylor to third.1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1B. Lowe homered to right (380 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 55%
- ML TB +115 / CLE -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 53.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -124
- TB +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.5 – 4.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −5 | TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +22 Elo | CLE 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 19th of 3034–37 | Road vs home | 43–253rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–76 | 77–68 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–44 | 39–43 |
| Underdog | 45–32 | 38–25 |
| Overs–unders | 69–76 | 72–71–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 5–4 CLE in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.