Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane BazPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 6Wilson reached on infield single to shortstop, Castellanos scored, Marsh to second.2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Aranda homered to right (391 feet).2–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Walls singled to right, Carlson scored, Aranda to third.1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Castellanos homered to left center (370 feet), Turner scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 67%
- ML TB +195 / PHI -235
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 59.5%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -207
- TB +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 4.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +15 | TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +67 Elo | PHI 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 67.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 66.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.82nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 18th of 3034–36 | Road vs home | 49–241st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–76 | 72–73 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–44 | 53–59 |
| Underdog | 44–32 | 19–14 |
| Overs–unders | 69–75 | 69–75–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 0–5 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.