Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting1-3
- Shane BazPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Henderson homered to right center (389 feet).0–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 5Holliday hit sacrifice fly to left, Cowser scored, Mullins to second.0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 59%
- ML TB +135 / BAL -160
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- BAL: Elo 55.0%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- BAL -145
- TB +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.8 – 4.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −9 | TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +35 Elo | BAL 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 15th of 3032–33 | Road vs home | 41–318th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–74 | 76–64 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–44 | 51–54 |
| Underdog | 41–30 | 25–10 |
| Overs–unders | 67–72 | 80–58–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 7–16 BAL in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 23.