Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Turner homered to left center (376 feet), Kennedy scored.4–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–9
- 8Kennedy singled to right, Stevenson scored.4–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 8Stevenson doubled to right, Clemens scored and Marsh scored.4–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging4–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 6Morel tripled to center, Driscoll scored.4–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 24–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 5Caminero singled to left, DeLuca scored, J. Lowe to second.3–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 3Turner homered to left center (381 feet), Schwarber scored.2–4
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 3Díaz singled to right, Aranda scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 2Rojas doubled to right, Marsh scored on throwing error by right fielder J. Lowe, Rojas to third.1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 2Caballero singled to left, Caminero scored, Carlson to second.1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 62%
- ML TB +155 / PHI -185
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 60.2%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -166
- TB +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.2 – 4.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +1 | TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +72 Elo | PHI 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 61.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.83rd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 15th of 3034–35 | Road vs home | 48–241st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–75 | 71–73 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–44 | 52–59 |
| Underdog | 44–31 | 19–14 |
| Overs–unders | 68–75 | 68–75–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 0–4 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.