Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Cedric MullinsBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9DeLuca scored on Kimbrel wild pitch.7–1
- 9DeLuca scored on Kimbrel wild pitch.7–1
- 8Díaz singled to right, Walls scored.6–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Driscoll reached on infield single to first, Aranda scored on throwing error by first baseman O'Hearn and Díaz scored, J. Lowe safe at third on error.5–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Mullins homered to right (373 feet).3–1
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball 33–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 6Walls singled to left, DeLuca scored, Siri to second.3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Walls homered to right center (388 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Díaz homered to left (440 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 62%
- ML TB +150 / BAL -180
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- BAL: Elo 60.2%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- BAL -161
- TB +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.2 – 4.3 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +16 | TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +72 Elo | BAL 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 60.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 18th of 3032–34 | Road vs home | 42–318th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–75 | 77–64 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–44 | 52–54 |
| Underdog | 41–31 | 25–10 |
| Overs–unders | 67–73 | 80–59–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 7–17 BAL in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 24.