Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Logan DriscollBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Jhonkensy NoelBatting2-3
- Tanner BibeePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Fry doubled to left, Noel scored.3–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 4Aranda homered to right (358 feet).3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 3Driscoll homered to right (393 feet), Siri scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 62%
- ML TB +155 / CLE -185
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 55.3%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -166
- TB +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.2 – 4.3 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +12 | TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +37 Elo | CLE 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 60.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 16th of 3035–37 | Road vs home | 43–263rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–76 | 77–69 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–44 | 39–44 |
| Underdog | 46–32 | 38–25 |
| Overs–unders | 69–77 | 72–72–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 6–4 CLE in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.