Cincinnati Reds at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting2-3
- Rhett LowderPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Twins- Carlos SantanaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- David FestaPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Lee tripled to right, Larnach scored, Castro scored and Jeffers scored.2–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–9
- 7Santana homered to left (375 feet), Lewis scored.2–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 6Lee singled to center, Larnach scored and Jeffers scored.2–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 6Jeffers doubled to left, Santana scored, Larnach to third.2–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Castro singled to left, Santana scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4France hit sacrifice fly to center, Steer scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 4Steer tripled to center, Stephenson scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 60%
- ML CIN +140 / MIN -165
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 53.6%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -149
- CIN +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.8 – 4.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +2 | CIN: Rhett Lowder: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIN: David Festa: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +25 Elo | MIN 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.217th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 16th of 3037–38 | Road vs home | 41–3310th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 85–65 | 68–79 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 30–39 | 41–59 |
| Underdog | 55–26 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders | 71–78–1 | 77–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 3–2 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.