Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching5.2 IP, 9 ER, 4 K
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Adams singled to right, Leblanc scored.5–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–10
- 6Wallner doubled to center, Farmer scored and Julien scored.4–10
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–10
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–10
- 5Santana homered to right center (404 feet), Larnach scored.4–8
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–8
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–8
- 5Neto homered to center (428 feet), Teodosio scored and Ward scored.4–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 5Ward singled to right, Stefanic scored, Teodosio to third.1–6
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 31–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 3Jeffers sacrificed into double play, center to center to third to shortstop, Larnach scored, Santana thrown out at third.0–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 3Wallner homered to right (444 feet).0–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 2Farmer homered to left (396 feet), Santana scored and Jeffers scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 2Jeffers singled to center, Larnach scored, Santana to second.0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 71%
- ML LAA +230 / MIN -285
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 61.9%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -244
- LAA +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.3 – 5.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +7 | LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +84 Elo | MIN 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 69.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 68.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 26th of 3030–42 | Road vs home | 39–3110th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–69 | 66–77 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 6–24 | 39–57 |
| Underdog | 68–45 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders | 68–75 | 73–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 4–6 MIN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.