Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Niko KavadasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Twins- Kyle FarmerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- David FestaPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Kavadas homered to right (364 feet), O'Hoppe scored.6–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 36–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking6–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 26–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 4Farmer homered to left (419 feet).4–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 3Santana singled to left, Helman scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Drury homered to left (459 feet), Schanuel scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 9 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball 34–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1Schanuel singled to left, Ward scored and Neto scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 61%
- ML LAA +145 / MIN -175
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 64.7%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -156
- LAA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.3 – 4.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +5 | LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: David Festa: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +105 Elo | MIN 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 62.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 26th of 3029–42 | Road vs home | 39–308th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–69 | 66–76 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–24 | 39–56 |
| Underdog | 67–45 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders | 67–75 | 72–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 3–6 MIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.