Cincinnati Reds at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting4-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Benson singled to right, India scored.11–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play11–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 111–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking11–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging11–1
- 5Fraley homered to right (380 feet).10–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play10–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul10–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 210–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul10–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging10–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 110–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–1
- 4Friedl homered to right center (385 feet), Steer scored.9–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 19–1
- 4Steer doubled to center, De La Cruz scored and India scored.7–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 4India singled to right, Fraley scored and Marte scored.5–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 4Marte hit a ground rule double, Friedl scored and France scored, Fraley to third.3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4France reached on infield single to third, Steer scored, Friedl to second.1–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Buxton reached on infield single to second, Wallner scored, Lewis to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 59%
- ML CIN +135 / MIN -160
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 53.6%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -145
- CIN +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.8 – 4.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | 0 | CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +25 Elo | MIN 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 17th of 3036–38 | Road vs home | 41–329th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 84–65 | 68–78 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 30–39 | 41–58 |
| Underdog | 54–26 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders | 70–78–1 | 76–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 2–2 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.