Cincinnati Reds at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Julian AguiarPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching6.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Friedl singled to right, Steer scored.8–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 28–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 18–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking8–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 7Lee singled to right, Buxton scored and Castro scored.7–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 17–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 7Castro singled to left, Larnach scored, Buxton to second.7–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 27–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 17–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 7De La Cruz homered to right center (398 feet), France scored, Espinal scored and India scored.7–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–1
- 7France doubled to left, Friedl scored.3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Friedl reached on bunt single to pitcher, Steer scored.2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Buxton homered to left center (393 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Friedl homered to right (347 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 69%
- ML CIN +205 / MIN -250
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 55.0%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- MIN -218
- CIN +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.4 – 5.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +6 | CIN: Julian Aguiar: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +35 Elo | MIN 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 63.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 18th of 3035–38 | Road vs home | 41–317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–65 | 68–77 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 30–39 | 41–57 |
| Underdog | 53–26 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders | 69–78–1 | 75–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 1–2 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.