Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack KochanowiczPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schanuel singled to center, Kavadas scored, Adams to third.4–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 7Lewis doubled to left, Vázquez scored and Farmer scored, Santana to third.3–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 6Adams homered to center (419 feet).3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Lee doubled to left, Castro scored and Larnach scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Castro singled to center, Santana scored, Castro to second, Larnach to third.2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Schanuel homered to right (382 feet).2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 1Wallner homered to center (435 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 1Ward homered to center (416 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 65%
- ML LAA +175 / MIN -210
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 58.1%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -186
- LAA +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.6 – 4.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −18 | LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.89 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +57 Elo | MIN 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 64.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 27th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 25th of 3030–43 | Road vs home | 40–319th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–70 | 67–77 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–24 | 40–57 |
| Underdog | 68–46 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders | 69–75 | 74–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 4–7 MIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.