Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Kyle ManzardoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching2.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Manzardo homered to right (407 feet), J. Naylor scored.3–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Martínez singled to left, Manzardo scored, Bo Naylor to second, Brennan to third.3–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 5Giménez reached on infield single to third, Rocchio scored, Martínez out at home on runner's fielder's choice.3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Buxton singled to center, Lewis scored and Jeffers scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 3Correa scored, Jeffers to second on passed ball by Bo Naylor, Lewis to third on passed ball by Bo Naylor.1–0
- 3Correa scored, Jeffers to second on passed ball by Bo Naylor, Lewis to third on passed ball by Bo Naylor.1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML MIN -115 / CLE -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 46.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- CLE +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.8 – 3.7 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +6 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +22 Elo | CLE 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 14th of 3037–37 | Road vs home | 45–273rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–79 | 79–70 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 42–59 | 41–45 |
| Underdog | 27–20 | 38–25 |
| Overs–unders | 78–70 | 72–75–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 8–14 CLE in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 22.