Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting3-5, 4 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 12 K
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Rocchio singled to right, Giménez scored, Brennan to second.4–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 10Brennan singled to right, Straw scored, Giménez to third.4–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 14–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 10Manzardo singled to center, J. Naylor scored.4–3
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 10Correa singled to left, Lewis scored and Margot scored, Castro to third.4–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 7J. Naylor homered to right (391 feet).2–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 5Correa reached on infield single to second, Castro scored, Wallner to second.2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 2J. Naylor homered to right center (445 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Correa grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Castro scored, Wallner safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Rocchio.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 55%
- ML MIN +115 / CLE -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 54.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -124
- MIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.5 – 4.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +12 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +29 Elo | CLE 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 14th of 3038–38 | Road vs home | 46–283rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–79 | 79–72 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 42–59 | 41–47 |
| Underdog | 29–20 | 38–25 |
| Overs–unders | 78–72 | 72–77–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 9–15 CLE in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 24.