St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Charlie BlackmonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Toglia doubled to center, McMahon scored.8–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 28–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–10
- 8McMahon doubled to right, Tovar scored.8–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–9
- 8Tovar doubled to center, Blackmon scored and Schunk scored.8–8
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 38–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 28–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 18–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–8
- 8Schunk singled to center, Cave scored.8–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 38–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 28–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging8–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–6
- 8Pagés homered to left center (419 feet), Saggese scored.8–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 28–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 18–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–5
- 5Herrera homered to center (446 feet).6–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 26–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 4Blackmon hit sacrifice fly to left, Cave scored.5–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 2Blackmon homered to right (393 feet), Schunk scored.5–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 2Goldschmidt doubled to left, Nootbaar scored.5–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 2Nootbaar doubled to center, Winn scored.4–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML STL -115 / COL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- STL: Elo 55.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- COL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 5.3 – 5.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1422 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +5 | STL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +35 Elo | STL 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 17th of 3037–40 | Road vs home | 36–3924th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–78 | 76–78 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–48 | 2–9 |
| Underdog | 55–30 | 74–68 |
| Overs–unders | 72–83–2 | 79–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 7–5 COL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.