San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Mason BlackPitching2.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Pavin SmithBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 8Smith homered to right center (406 feet), Perdomo scored and Carroll scored.2–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–8
- 8Ramos singled to right, Yastrzemski scored, Ramos out stretching at second.2–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 12–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 4Walker singled to left, Marte scored, Pederson to second.1–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 3Moreno walked, Walker scored, McCarthy to second, Gurriel Jr. to third.1–4
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 41–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 31–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 2Carroll hit sacrifice fly to right, Suárez scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 2Moreno singled to center, McCarthy scored, Suárez to second.1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Gurriel Jr. singled to right, Walker scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Fitzgerald doubled to center, Conforto scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 70%
- ML SF +215 / ARI -265
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.4 pts
- ARI: Elo 58.2%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- ARI -229
- SF +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.3 – 5.2 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +4 | SF: Mason Black: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +57 Elo | ARI 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 65.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.927th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 17th of 3038–41 | Road vs home | 42–3512th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–76 | 84–74 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–48 | 35–45 |
| Underdog | 47–28 | 49–29 |
| Overs–unders | 81–72–1 | 94–63–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 12–13 ARI in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 25.