San Francisco Giants at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- LaMonte Wade Jr.Batting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Royals- MJ MelendezBatting2-3
- Brady SingerPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Yastrzemski homered to right (396 feet), Walton scored and Casali scored.9–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–0
- 6Casali singled to left, Fitzgerald scored and McCray scored, Walton to second.6–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 6Chapman homered to left (386 feet).4–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 14–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 4Chapman homered to center (421 feet).3–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Wade Jr. homered to right (394 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Wade Jr. homered to right (417 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 58%
- ML SF +130 / KC -155
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- KC: Elo 52.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -140
- SF +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.9 – 4.6 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −14 | SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +19 Elo | KC 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 20th of 3034–41 | Road vs home | 45–347th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–76 | 84–67 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–48 | 36–38 |
| Underdog | 43–28 | 48–29 |
| Overs–unders | 78–71–1 | 67–83–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 2–2 KC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.