San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Conforto hit sacrifice fly to left, Yastrzemski scored.4–3
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–3
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 24–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 10Solano grounded out to third, D. Peralta scored, Arraez to third.4–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 10D. Peralta singled to left, Cronenworth scored.3–2
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 33–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 9Ramos homered to right (394 feet).2–2
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 8Tatis Jr. homered to center (400 feet).2–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Walton homered to center (408 feet).1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 6Machado hit sacrifice fly to center, Arraez scored, Solano to third.1–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 50%
- ML SD -110 / SF -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- SF: Elo 45.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- SF -100
- SD -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.3 – 4.3 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −2 | SD: Martin Perez: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +34 Elo | SD 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3043–30 | Road vs home | 41–3617th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–72 | 71–75 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 36–54 | 30–47 |
| Underdog | 39–18 | 41–28 |
| Overs–unders | 82–65–1 | 76–69–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 14–11 SF in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 25.