San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Crawford singled to left, Turner scored, Polanco to second.7–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 27–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 17–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 7Machado singled to center, Arraez scored and Solano scored, Profar to third.7–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–2
- 6Machado homered to center (429 feet), Profar scored.5–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 3Tatis Jr. homered to right center (399 feet), Solano scored and Arraez scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Raley homered to right (367 feet).0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul0–2
- 1Raleigh homered to right (395 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 53%
- ML SD +105 / SEA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 51.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -114
- SD +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.6 – 3.9 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −5 | SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +8 Elo | SEA 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.81st of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3040–29 | Road vs home | 41–285th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–71 | 58–83 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 36–54 | 37–61 |
| Underdog | 37–17 | 21–22 |
| Overs–unders | 80–64–1 | 64–75–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 1–5 SEA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.