San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael KingPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bogaerts singled to center, Profar scored, Cronenworth to second.2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 7Tatis Jr. homered to left (381 feet).1–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 6Crawford doubled to right, Raley scored and Turner scored.0–5
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 30–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 3Raley singled to right, Robles scored and Rodríguez scored, Raleigh to second.0–3
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Raleigh singled to right, Rojas scored, Rodríguez to second, Robles to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 50%
- ML SD -110 / SEA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 49.0%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- SEA -100
- SD -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.3 – 3.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +4 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +7 Elo | SD 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3041–29 | Road vs home | 41–296th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–71 | 58–84 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 36–54 | 37–62 |
| Underdog | 38–17 | 21–22 |
| Overs–unders | 81–64–1 | 65–75–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 2–5 SEA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.