San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Joe MusgrovePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Giants- Mark CanhaBatting1-3
- Mason BlackPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Merrill doubled to right, Profar scored and Tatis Jr. scored.8–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 8Tatis Jr. singled to right, Arraez scored.6–0
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–0
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 36–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 26–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 16–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–0
- 6Machado singled to center, Arraez scored and Tatis Jr. scored, Machado to second, Profar to third.5–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 6Arraez singled to center, Solano scored.3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Bogaerts homered to left center (397 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Machado doubled to center, Profar scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 56%
- Fair odds
- SD -138
- SF +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.3 – 3.6 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −5 | SD: Joe Musgrove: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Mason Black: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +44 Elo | SD 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3042–30 | Road vs home | 41–3516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–72 | 71–75 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 36–54 | 30–47 |
| Underdog | 39–18 | 41–28 |
| Overs–unders | 82–65–1 | 76–69–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 13–11 SF in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 24.