San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Giants- Patrick BaileyBatting2-4
- Logan WebbPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Machado doubled to right, Lockridge scored.5–0
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–0
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 35–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 25–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 4Merrill scored on error, Díaz safe at first on throwing error by pitcher Webb, Díaz safe at second on error.4–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1Bogaerts doubled to right, Machado scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 1Tatis Jr. homered to center (433 feet), Arraez scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 50%
- ML SD -110 / SF -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- SF: Elo 47.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- SF -100
- SD -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.3 – 3.3 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +4 | SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +19 Elo | SD 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3041–30 | Road vs home | 41–3414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–72 | 71–74 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 36–54 | 30–46 |
| Underdog | 38–18 | 41–28 |
| Overs–unders | 82–64–1 | 76–68–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 12–11 SF in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 23.