Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Colt KeithBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching2.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Vierling singled to right, Pérez scored.7–6
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 27–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 6Pérez doubled to left, Ibáñez scored and Rogers scored.6–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 36–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 26–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 5Witt Jr. reached on infield single to pitcher, Isbel scored.4–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 5Keith homered to right center (406 feet), Vierling scored.4–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Vierling reached on infield single to shortstop, Meadows scored on throwing error by shortstop Witt Jr., Vierling to second.2–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 4Garcia singled to left, Melendez scored.1–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 4Sweeney hit sacrifice fly to center, McKinstry scored.1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Witt Jr. homered to left (383 feet), Frazier scored, Gurriel scored and Isbel scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 54%
- ML DET +110 / KC -130
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- KC: Elo 55.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -119
- DET +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.6 – 3.9 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +7 | DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +36 Elo | KC 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 13th of 3038–37 | Road vs home | 45–304th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–69 | 84–63 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 24–37 | 36–35 |
| Underdog | 56–32 | 48–28 |
| Overs–unders | 76–73 | 66–80–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 13–10 KC in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 23.