Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting1-4
- Zach EflinPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brant HurterPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 1Carpenter homered to right center (414 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 55%
- ML BAL -135 / DET +115
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- BAL: Elo 49.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -124
- DET +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.0 – 3.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +16 | BAL: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Beau Brieske: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +1 Elo | DET 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3041–31 | Road vs home | 36–3519th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–68 | 78–68 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 52–56 | 23–37 |
| Underdog | 26–12 | 55–31 |
| Overs–unders | 82–62–2 | 76–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 6–1 DET in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.