Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Rob RefsnyderBatting4-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8O'Neill homered to left center (422 feet).3–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–12
- 8Refsnyder homered to right (327 feet).3–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–11
- 7Rafaela doubled to right, D. Jansen scored and Story scored.3–10
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–10
- 7Santander homered to right center (407 feet).3–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–8
- 6Refsnyder singled to center, D. Jansen scored and Rafaela scored, Devers to second.2–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–8
- 6Rafaela singled to center, González scored and Wong scored, D. Jansen to second.2–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–6
- 4Santander walked, Cowser scored, Mullins to second, L. Soto to third.2–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 42–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 32–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 3O'Neill homered to left center (371 feet).1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 3Refsnyder homered to center (412 feet), Devers scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 1O'Neill grounded out to shortstop, Devers scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 31–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML BAL +100 / BOS -120
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 47.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -109
- BAL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.7 – 4.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | 0 | BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +14 Elo | BAL 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.6 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3040–29 | Road vs home | 33–3927th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–66 | 64–79 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 52–56 | 26–51 |
| Underdog | 25–10 | 38–28 |
| Overs–unders | 81–60–2 | 74–67–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 14–9 BOS in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 23.