Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Emmanuel RiveraBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Red Sox- Tyler O'NeillBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10O'Neill homered to left center (393 feet), Duran scored and González scored.3–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 10Rivera singled to center, Slater scored.3–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 8Santander homered to right (408 feet).2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Rafaela singled to left, Yoshida scored, Story to third.1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 3Abreu reached on infield single to third, Duran scored on throwing error by third baseman Rivera, Abreu to second, Devers safe at third on error.1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Rivera homered to left (353 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 57%
- ML BAL +125 / BOS -150
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 48.0%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -135
- BAL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.4 – 5.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +2 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +14 Elo | BAL 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3041–30 | Road vs home | 34–4027th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–67 | 65–80 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 52–56 | 27–52 |
| Underdog | 26–11 | 38–28 |
| Overs–unders | 82–61–2 | 75–68–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 15–10 BOS in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 25.