Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Cedric MullinsBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Albert SuarezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8O'Neill scored on a balk, Yoshida to third on a balk.5–3
- 8O'Neill scored on a balk, Yoshida to third on a balk.5–3
- 8Yoshida doubled to left, Duran scored, O'Neill to third.5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Rutschman singled to left, Henderson scored and Santander scored, O'Hearn to second.5–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 35–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 25–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 4Casas doubled to center, Wong scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 3Mullins homered to right (407 feet), Henderson scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Mullins homered to right (334 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 55%
- ML BAL +115 / BOS -135
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 46.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -124
- BAL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.5 – 5.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −2 | BAL: Albert Suarez: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +26 Elo | BAL 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3040–30 | Road vs home | 34–3926th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–67 | 65–79 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 52–56 | 27–51 |
| Underdog | 25–11 | 38–28 |
| Overs–unders | 82–60–2 | 75–67–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 14–10 BOS in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 24.