Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Greene homered to right (365 feet).2–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 8Rutschman homered to right (380 feet), Mullins scored.2–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 32–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 6Keith singled to left, Vierling scored.0–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 3Greene homered to right (412 feet), Ibáñez scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 50%
- ML BAL -110 / DET -110
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- DET: Elo 52.2%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -100
- BAL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.3 – 4.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | +1 | BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 0.99 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +16 Elo | DET 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 4th of 3042–32 | Road vs home | 37–3619th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–69 | 79–69 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 53–57 | 23–37 |
| Underdog | 26–12 | 56–32 |
| Overs–unders | 82–64–2 | 76–72 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 7–2 DET in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.