Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Parker MeadowsBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Casey MizePitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Greene singled to center, Meadows scored, Vierling to second.3–1
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 10Meadows singled to left, Sweeney scored.2–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Massey singled to right, Witt Jr. scored, Perez to second.1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Vierling doubled to left, Ibáñez scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 59%
- ML DET +135 / KC -160
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- KC: Elo 56.1%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -145
- DET +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.3 – 4.2 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +8 | DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +42 Elo | KC 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 59.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 11th of 3039–37 | Road vs home | 45–316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–69 | 84–64 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 24–37 | 36–36 |
| Underdog | 57–32 | 48–28 |
| Overs–unders | 77–73 | 67–80–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 14–10 KC in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 24.