San Francisco Giants at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Michael ConfortoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Santander homered to right center (390 feet), Henderson scored.3–5
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–5
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 13–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 9Schmitt singled to right, Wisely scored, Ramos to second.3–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 4Holliday singled to center, Cowser scored and Rutschman scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 4Rutschman doubled to right, Santander scored, Cowser to third.2–1
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 32–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 12–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Conforto homered to right center (370 feet), Encarnación scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 58%
- Fair odds
- BAL -120
- SF +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.0 – 4.4 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +14 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +58 Elo | BAL 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.512th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 20th of 3033–40 | Road vs home | 42–3514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–76 | 79–72 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 31–48 | 53–58 |
| Underdog | 42–28 | 26–14 |
| Overs–unders | 78–70–1 | 84–65–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 3–2 BAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.