San Francisco Giants at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Mike YastrzemskiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 12 K
Orioles- Heston KjerstadBatting2-2
- Albert SuarezPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Conforto singled to right, Wade Jr. scored and Ramos scored.10–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 110–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–0
- 9Ramos doubled to left, Yastrzemski scored, Wade Jr. to third.8–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 9Wade Jr. singled to right, Walton scored and Wisely scored, Yastrzemski to third.7–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–0
- 9Wisely sacrificed, McCray scored, Walton to second.5–0
- 4Walton singled to center, McCray scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 2Yastrzemski singled to right, McCray scored, Walton to second.3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Wisely hit sacrifice fly to right, Bailey scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Yastrzemski homered to right (416 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 52%
- ML SF -120 / BAL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.0 pts
- SF: Elo 42.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -109
- BAL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.8 – 3.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +10 | SF: Blake Snell: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Albert Suarez: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +55 Elo | BAL 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.85th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3031–40 | Road vs home | 42–338th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–76 | 79–70 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 30–48 | 53–57 |
| Underdog | 41–28 | 26–13 |
| Overs–unders | 76–70–1 | 82–65–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 1–2 BAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.