San Francisco Giants at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Michael ConfortoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hayden BirdsongPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-5
- Dean KremerPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6O'Hearn doubled to left, Cowser scored.5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Conforto homered to right (397 feet).5–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 4Schmitt singled to left, Conforto scored and Fitzgerald scored, McCray to second.4–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 4McCray grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Ramos scored on error by catcher McCann, Fitzgerald to second, Conforto to third.2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Mullins grounded out to second, Holliday scored, McCann to third.1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 3McCann doubled to right, Rivera scored, Holliday to third.1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Yastrzemski homered to right center (397 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 60%
- ML SF +140 / BAL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- BAL: Elo 57.7%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- BAL -149
- SF +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.3 – 4.2 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −3 | SF: Hayden Birdsong: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +54 Elo | BAL 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–729th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3032–40 | Road vs home | 42–3413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–76 | 79–71 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 31–48 | 53–57 |
| Underdog | 41–28 | 26–14 |
| Overs–unders | 77–70–1 | 83–65–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 2–2 BAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.