Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Daniel Lynch IVPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Perez singled to right, Witt Jr. scored.4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 3Sweeney doubled to right, Jung scored and Torkelson scored, Sweeney to third.4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 3Greene homered to right (427 feet).2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Rogers reached on infield single to pitcher, McKinstry scored on throwing error by pitcher Marsh.1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Gurriel singled to left, Pham scored, Grossman to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 55%
- ML DET -135 / KC +115
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- DET: Elo 49.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -124
- KC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.0 – 3.5 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −4 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Alec Marsh: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +6 Elo | KC 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 11th of 3040–37 | Road vs home | 45–326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 82–69 | 84–65 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 24–37 | 36–37 |
| Underdog | 58–32 | 48–28 |
| Overs–unders | 77–74 | 67–81–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 15–10 KC in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 25.