Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Grichuk walked, Moreno scored, Marte to second, Perdomo to third.7–4
- 6Pitch 9 : Ball 47–4
- 6Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 37–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 27–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 6Carroll grounded out to first, Suárez scored, Perdomo to second, Moreno to third.6–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 6Gurriel Jr. homered to left center (378 feet).5–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 5Mitchell homered to left center (393 feet).4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Contreras homered to right center (409 feet), Chourio scored.4–3
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 34–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 24–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 14–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 5Ortiz homered to left center (416 feet).4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5Marte doubled to left, Perdomo scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 2Carroll hit sacrifice fly to center, Suárez scored, Perdomo to second, Moreno to third.3–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 54%
- ML ARI -130 / MIL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- ARI: Elo 47.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -119
- MIL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.4 – 4.1 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −9 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +16 Elo | MIL 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 27th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 5th of 3043–35 | Road vs home | 44–315th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–72 | 81–70 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 34–43 | 35–49 |
| Underdog | 47–29 | 46–21 |
| Overs–unders | 90–62–1 | 82–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 8–4 MIL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.
- Sep 19ARI 5 @ MIL 1Picked ARI 53%Hit
- Sep 15MIL 10 @ ARI 11Picked ARI 61%Hit
- Sep 14MIL 15 @ ARI 8Picked ARI 58%Miss
- Sep 13MIL 2 @ ARI 1Picked ARI 53%Miss
- Oct 4ARI 5 @ MIL 2PlayoffsPicked MIL 54%Miss
- Oct 3ARI 6 @ MIL 3PlayoffsPicked MIL 55%Miss
- Jun 21ARI 5 @ MIL 1Picked MIL 51%Miss
- Jun 20ARI 5 @ MIL 7Picked MIL 51%Hit