Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Brewers- Garrett MitchellBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Frankie MontasPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Turner singled to center, Rojas scored.5–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Schwarber reached on infield single to first, Sosa scored.4–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 14–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 6Harper homered to center (394 feet), Schwarber scored.3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 4Mitchell tripled to center, Contreras scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 2Castellanos homered to center (430 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 55%
- ML PHI -135 / MIL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 48.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -124
- MIL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.0 – 3.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +4 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +11 Elo | MIL 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.91st of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 10th of 3037–34 | Road vs home | 43–295th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–77 | 81–67 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 54–62 | 35–48 |
| Underdog | 19–15 | 46–19 |
| Overs–unders | 72–77–1 | 82–66 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–5 MIL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.